Virginia Tech

First, my prayers and thoughts go out to the entire Blacksburg community on this terrible day.

As a wannabe journalist, I wanted to post a few comments about the media coverage I have been watching since about 1:00 this afternoon. At times, it has been agonizingly slow in getting information. There was about an hour where the local Fox affiliate was reporting 32 fatalities while CNN was reporting 22. Not once in that hour did CNN even address the possibility that more people had been killed. Also, the press conferences have not shed much light on the situation, but that is understandable considering the ongoing investigation. However, after watching a number of similar news conferences in my lifetime, it would be nice if the assembled media could learn that "I cannot comment on that at this time" means that the speaker will not be commenting on that at this time no matter how you try to phrase the question.

Of greater frustration has been the rush to judgment by the media on how the university handled the events of the day. With hindsight, I am sure the university and campus police wish they would have done things differently. But the crucial question to answer is what did they know and at what time? The first incident was reported via a 911 call at 7:15am. Police arrived, secured the building, and began interviewing witnesses. From the few details the police chief has unveiled at the press conferences, you can glean a scenario that may have played out: Witnesses told police that John Doe was responsible for the shootings. They tracked him down as a "person of interest." While they were interviewing him, reports came in of the second shooting site.

I sometimes wonder if the media weighs the need for public information versus the threat of mass hysteria. With 9000 students on campus, thousands of other students commuting onto campus, and thousands of employees either on campus or en route, what was the best course of action to ensure their safety? Do you lock down a campus when you believe you may have the person responsible in for questioning? I am sure people would be second-guessing if campus police caused panic and the first incident turned out to be just an isolated event? I just do not understand the need to so quickly assess blame for an act so despicable that it is beyond our imagination.

MLB 2K7 Nightmare

They say games aren't played on paper, and thankfully for the Baltimore Orioles, they aren't played on a video game console either. ESPN played the entire 2007 season on MLB 2K7 and the results were not pretty. The Birds finished 60-102, 40 games behind Boston for the division title in the AL East. The game not only predicts the O's to be the worst team in baseball, but far worse than any other team. That means 8 games worse than Kansas City & Colorado, 9 back of Tampa Bay & Pittsburgh, and 12 behind our own Nats.

I will now take a few minutes for rebuttal. First, I would like to borrow a quote from the Geico Caveman... "yeah, I have the response... what??!" Who loaded the skill ratings for this game? I realize that they probably won't challenge for the division title this year, but I also don't think that a .500 record or better is out of the question. It is early, but the pitching looks much improved. The starters have delivered eight consecutive quality starts including the 8-1 win Friday over the Royals. Take away last Saturday's nightmare in New York and Kurt Birkins' implosion in the 12th on Wednesday and the bullpen has been near perfect. The hitters have struggled mightily and yet the team is 5-6 at the moment. With the proven hitters in the lineup and the near-future additions of Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton off the DL, there is legitimate hope for improvement. And by improvement, I mean finishing the rest of the season with a record better than 55-96.

Orioles & MASN

Just finished watching most of the Orioles' starters play 6-7 innings against the Dodgers and boy are my eyes tired. They committed four errors in the first two innings, and could have been credited with two more if the official scorer hadn't been in his "happy place". Miggy had two, both on plays where he passively backed up on a ground ball and let it play him. When he finally made a play, the fans in Fort Lauderdale serenaded him with a Bronx cheer in appreciation of his efforts. Offensively, it seemed like deja vu all over again as they struggled to muster any threat against a left-handed starter, in this case Randy Wolf.

For the spring, the Orioles are 12-11 in the 18 team Grapefruit League. They rank above only Florida in runs scored with 92, or exactly 4 runs a game. In the 2006 regular season, Tampa Bay ranked last in the majors in that category, averaging 4.253 runs per game. Perhaps the Florida winds have played a part or maybe they have faced an inordinate number of lefties, but the offensive talent should be good enough to compete. In fact, the run scoring offense has ranked between 8th and 17th over the last 3 years, and the additions of Aubrey Huff & Jay Payton should only improve the lineup flexibility and potency. On the plus side, the team ranks 2nd in MLB in ERA this spring at 3.18. That's more than 2 runs less per game than they surrendered last year while ranking next to last in the majors. If the pitching carries over to the regular season, it would mark the first season this millennium when the team ranked above the bottom 10 in ERA.

A good product on the field would be made more enjoyable if MASN can improve its game production. The announcing teams are solid, but sometimes we have to take their word on the action. Today, Juan Pierre of the Dodgers stole 2nd base, but I only was aware of it from Jim Hunter's commentary and Ramon Hernandez's body language as the camera lingered a little long on the catcher's follow-through. There were a few other times when the camera people had trouble following the ball. In fact, I am still not sure the game is over. Rumor has it that the Orioles final batter lined out to Dodgers third baseman Andy LaRoche, but I can neither confirm nor deny that. I can only tell you that left fielder Matt Kemp really looked like he was about to dive for a ball that never came.

Local Round 2 Preview - Saturday

Locally, the Terps face Butler today and will need to neutralize guards A.J. Graves and Mike Green. D.J. Strawberry will draw the toughest assignment, but Maryland will need to spell him so that he can contribute better offensively than he did against Davidson. Butler leads the nation in protecting the ball with only 9.3 turnovers per game, so Maryland's pressure must create some easy baskets in transition. Lastly, the Maryland bigs must get some touches inside and if Butler packs the interior with a zone, the outside shots need to fall.

Georgetown faces Boston College and should be heavily favored to advance. Defensively, they need to contain the trio of Jared Dudley, Sean Marshall and Tyrese Rice. Those three players average 51.4 points per game while the rest of the roster averages only 24.2. Offensively, if they run their offense and get touches for Hibbert in the post early, they should their typical success, as Boston College gives up an average of 70 points per game and lost their interior defensive presence when Sean Williams was suspended mid-season.

Round 1 in Review

Two days of games and this year's tournament has been characterized by the lack of any huge upsets. There were a number of near misses, as North Texas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Miami (OH), Davidson and New Mexico State all nearly busted many a bracket. The only double digit seeds to win were VCU and Winthrop and many predicted those teams as the favorites when the brackets were unveiled. Controversial at-large teams Arkansas and Stanford did nothing to quiet the critics, getting blown out by 17 and 20 points respectively. I am sure that Drexel, Missouri State, and Syracuse are convinced they could have had better showings if their names had been called Sunday night.

Looking ahead to round 2, top seeds Florida and UNC look to have their hands full if Purdue and Michigan State continue to play the stifling defense they exhibited in their opening games. 3 seeds Texas A&M and Washington State will need to avoid the slow starts they had on Thursday if they hope to advance past Louisville and Vanderbilt, respectively. The only "cinderellas" left, VCU and Winthrop, face tough, but winnable matchups against Pittsburgh and Oregon, respectively.

Bracket Impressions - Omissions

• Four incorrect inclusions in my final bracket below - Syracuse, Missouri State, Drexel, Air Force.
• Four tourney teams according to the Selection Committee - Purdue, Texas Tech, Stanford, Arkansas

ESPN's Season RPI (which I assume is accurate): 30 Air Force, 35 Arkansas, 36 Missouri State, 39 Drexel, 42 Purdue, 50 Syracuse, 53 Texas Tech, 63 Stanford

ESPN's Non-Conference RPI (also assumed to be accurate): 14 Drexel, 16 Arkansas, 24 Air Force, 38 Missouri State, 39 Texas Tech, 40 Purdue, 45 Syracuse, 55 Stanford

So, the case I made for each of my excluded teams -

• Drexel - Good RPI for the season made even better by a non-conference strength of schedule ranked 8th. That non-conference schedule included wins at Vermont, St. Joseph's, Villanova, Syracuse, Temple, and Creighton.
• Air Force - 30th ranked RPI was enough to overlook 4 game losing streak to end the season. Non-conference wins included victories at George Washington by 14, at Stanford by 34, and at home over Texas Tech by 14. For some reason, I thought head-to-head victories meant something.
• Missouri State - After last year's griping with the ACC, I can never be confused with a big fan of the Missouri Valley Conference, but I did feel that the 6th rated conference deserved more than 2 teams, rather than a 4th from the 7th rated Big 12. Factor in the solid RPI and a win over Wisconsin, and I thought they should be in.
• Syracuse - The late 5 game regular season win streak that ended with a 14 point win over a Georgetown team in the midst of winning 15 of 16 games convinced me to give them the nod over the Razorbacks who had lost 9 of 15 games prior to the SEC tourney.

Projected Field of 65

Thanks to Windows Vista, I will be posting this 8 hours later than intended. The conference tournaments shook up the brackets a bit and 4 teams forced their way in by capturing their tourney crown. Again, when placing teams in regions, I tried to spread conference teams throughout the regions, with an eye on avoiding conference rematches until the regional finals if possible

• St. Louis - 1 Ohio State; 2 Memphis; 3 Pittsburgh; 4 Texas; 5 Oregon; 6 Creighton; 7 Duke; 8 Boston College; 9 Vanderbilt; 10 Syracuse; 11 Drexel; 12 Gonzaga; 13 George Washington; 14 Albany; 15 Texas A&M - Corpus Christi; 16 PLAY IN - Niagara vs. Central Connecticut State
• San Jose - 1 Kansas; 2 Wisconsin; 3 Tennessee; 4 Nevada; 5 Arizona; 6 Virginia Tech; 7 Villanova; 8 Michigan State; 9 Xavier; 10 Old Dominion; 11 Air Force; 12 Holy Cross; 13 Wright State; 14 Miami (OH); 15 Belmont; 16 Weber State
• East Rutherford - 1 UNC; 2 Georgetown; 3 UNLV; 4 Texas A&M; 5 Kentucky; 6 Washington State; 7 Virginia; 8 Notre Dame; 9 Illinois; 10 Missouri State; 11 VCU; 12 Winthrop; 13 Oral Roberts; 14 Long Beach State; 15 Eastern Kentucky; 16 Florida A&M
• San Antonio - 1 Florida; 2 UCLA; 3 Southern Illinois; 4 Maryland; 5 BYU; 6 Butler; 7 Louisville; 8 Marquette; 9 USC; 10 Indiana; 11 Georgia Tech; 12 Davidson; 13 New Mexico State; 14 Pennsylvania; 15 North Texas; 16 Jackson State

**As mentioned before, if there has to be a Play-In Game, it should really feature the last 2 at large teams into the field. In my projections, the game would have been an 11 seed matchup between Georgia Tech and Air Force.

My Last Four Out: Texas Tech, Utah State, Appalachian State, Arkansas

Time to go to CBS Sportsline and find out how far off I am on the predictions.

Field of Madness (1st Look)

With all the projected brackets floating around, I decided to enter the fray. The 1st look here is prior to the automatic bids being handed out at the conference tournaments. In 1 bid leagues, I projected the regular season champions as tourney representatives, breaking any ties using their RPI ranking on ESPN as of Friday the 2nd. I filled the rest of the bracket using season RPI rankings, conference RPI rankings, overall record and strength of non-conference schedule. When seeding the field, I also looked at head to head matchups when applicable. For example, at first glance, I considered my beloved Terps for a 3 or a 4 seed, based mainly on their current winning streak. I considered the probable ACC champ Virginia Cavaliers as a 4 or a 5 seed, due to some weak losses in conference and in Puerto Rico. Acknowledging the Cavs' season sweep of UM, I felt I couldn't seed the Terps higher, so both are in as 4s. When placing teams in regions, I tried to spread conference teams throughout the regions, with an eye on avoiding conference rematches until the regional finals if possible. So, without further ado...

• San Antonio - 1 Florida; 2 UNC; 3 Nevada; 4 BYU; 5 Va Tech; 6 Oregon; 7 Louisville; 8 Michigan State; 9 Marquette; 10 Illinois; 11 Texas Tech; 12 Winthrop; 13 Holy Cross; 14 Long Beach State; 15 Austin Peay; 16 South Alabama
• East Rutherford - 1 Wisconsin; 2 Pittsburgh; 3 Texas A&M; 4 Kentucky; 5 Texas; 6 Butler; 7 Boston College; 8 Arizona; 9 Air Force; 10 Missouri State; 11 Drexel; 12 Utah State; 13 Gonzaga; 14 Sam Houston State; 15 East Tennessee State; 16 Delaware State
• Saint Louis - 1 Ohio State; 2 Memphis; 3 Georgetown; 4 Maryland; 5 UNLV; 6 Vanderbilt; 7 Washington State; 8 Creighton; 9 Notre Dame; 10 Syracuse; 11 Georgia Tech; 12 USC; 13 Akron; 14 Pennsylvania; 15 Oral Roberts; 16 PLAY IN (Weber State v Miss Valley State)
• San Jose - 1 UCLA; 2 Kansas; 3 So. Illinois; 4 Virginia; 5 Tennessee; 6 Duke; 7 Villanova; 8 Xavier; 9 Indiana; 10 Old Dominion; 11 Alabama; 12 Appalachian State; 13 Davidson; 14 Vermont; 15 Marist; 16 Central Conn State

**One soapbox issue I have is that if there has to be a Play-In Game, it should really feature the last 2 at large teams into the field. In my projections, the game would have been a 12 seed matchup between USC and Appalachian State.

Last Four Out: Purdue, Bradley, San Diego State, West Virginia

Back in a week with the pre-Selection Sunday version...

Getting Older

As many sports gamers are prone to do, I have always used the create-a-player feature to add myself (and occasionally friends) to my favorite teams. Led by the newly fabricated players, my teams have won Stanley Cups, Lombardi Trophies, and Larry O'Brien Trophies. Lately, however, I have found myself adding my son to the games instead. I guess that is a sign of getting older when you no longer can consider it feasible to add yourself as a freshman shooting guard who pushes the Terps to a national title. I know, all too well, my limitations when I struggle to create my shot against the other 30-somethings at the gym, but my son's potential is limitless. In the past year, he has pitched his team to Omaha for the College World Series, and led them to the Final Four in Atlanta. I, of course, couldn't be prouder. My 3-D version of my son though, has different thoughts. After the Final Four run, he announced his intention to transfer to rival Virginia. What is the matter with these kids these days?!

Fantasy Trades

So, I recently discovered the "Trade Machine" on ESPN.com. With this fabulous invention, I was just able to acquire Kevin Garnett for the Wizards by only giving up Antawn Jamison and Etan Thomas. I hate to see either of them go, but Etan and Brendan Todd can't play nice and Antawn for K.G. is a no brainer. This may hurt team chemistry and there will undoubtedly be a rough initial stretch as team leadership is sorted out, but we should all expect a trip to the NBA Finals this spring. Making things extraordinarily convenient is that the T'Wolves are in town this evening to play the Wizards, so Garnett need only to take a short walk over to the home team's locker room to try on his new uni. Welcome to DC, K.G.

Sim-ple-mind-ed

Just a few words as I rail against one of my top sports pet peeves...

As I was watching the end of Maryland's much needed win over the previously unbeaten Clemson Tigers today, I hear the Comcast Center's fans chanting "o-ver-rat-ed". I just want to make sure I am clear on the message here... The team the Terps were about to beat were not as good as everyone thought they were because Maryland could beat them? And furthering that logic, Maryland's victory should be devalued because Clemson just isn't that good? Got it. Good chant.

Congratulations Cal!

Though I am a few days late, I just wanted to take a moment and offer a congratulations to Cal Ripken Jr. on his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Cal's amazing streak and career numbers are even more impressive now considering the revelations of the past few years regarding the widespread use of steroids during his playing career. It is fitting that he will enter the Hall with Tony Gwynn. Ripken and Gwynn are two players whose actions, both on and off the field, indicate they are eligible for induction into the Integrity and Character Hall of Fame as well.

I am still convinced, with all due respect to Brett Favre, that Cal's streak is the most impressive consecutive games streak in sports' history. It is true that the quarterback position takes lots of punishment in a high-contact sport. However, Cal often had about 20 hours to be ready for his next game, played at baseball's 2nd most physically demanding position. To put it in perspective, just think about how you feel the day after a pickup game as compared to how you feel a week later. Then think about how you'd feel after 160 games over 180 days.

Ravens v Colts

In response to a friend's blog post where the opinion is offered that "after this game...it's over. Baltimore has to stop playing the "you stole our team" card. Sure, Baltimore had to sit out for quite a while...but in the long-run, they got a better team... and a Superbowl Championship...that's more than Indy can say! So this game is the final time to play that card. After that...people can still be free to hate the colts...but have to let go of the "they were ours." Because the Ravens ARE yours. And they're better."

I have to respectfully disagree with the opinion that a Ravens' victory puts an end to the "you stole our team" card. The anger is directed toward the Irsays, not Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. The Ravens' recent success has been great for the city of Baltimore, but the wounds of the past are still there.

I think the whole issue comes down to history. As a lifelong "homer", I was a Colts fan and am now a Ravens fan. It still pains me when I see the current commercial on NFL Network for the complete Colts history and see highlights of Johnny U to Lenny Moore spliced with highlights of Manning to Harrison. And I think the NFL Films people see the injustice of it all too. During the commercial, they always refer to it as the complete Colts history. Only at the end when they show you the DVD cover do you see that it is the "Indianapolis Colts" Complete History.

From a Ravens' fan perspective, I would feel uncomfortable if we were cheering our beloved Baltimore Browns on Saturday. I am glad Cleveland kept the name and the history. A Jim Brown ceremony in Baltimore would be a crime. I don't know how the people of Indianapolis feel about it, but I would think they would rather buy a Indianapolis Colts Complete History DVD that began with the story of their inaugural team, led by quarterback Mike Pagel (Arizona State class of '82).

Turkey Bowl 2007 & Ice Bowl 2008

I know that many people are involved in annual Thanksgiving and New Year's Day football games with their friends, so I am going on record now. The idea has always been to have a little fun, but this coming year, I am all about winning. To that end, I have dibs on Boise State head coach Chris Petersen and offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin to call my teams' plays in both games. If you call a "hook and ladder," halfback option, and "statue of liberty" in the last few plays of a BCS bowl game, you can be my play caller anytime.

This is all dependent on their bowl schedule of course. If they have a New Year's game again next year, I will be fair and only take one of them. I don't want to come across as unreasonable or anything.

As the Calendar Turns to 2007...

Happy New Year to all, and to all a minimal hangover! One of my myriad of resolutions for the upcoming year is to post more frequently to the blog, so...

Observations on the close of 2006:

• The 'Skins disappointing season was hard to stomach, though I kept consoling myself with a quote from Trent Green in a preseason article about Al Saunders' offense where he said the Chiefs had moments in their first season under Saunders but they really didn't hit their stride until that second season. The statistics seem to back his claims as the Chiefs went from scoring 320 points in 2001 to scoring 467 in 2002. If the 'Skins learning curve can follow a similar arc, the offense shouldn't be a problem next season. The defense, on the other hand... No pass rush, lack of takeaways, and the step backwards taken by Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers all need to be addressed in the offseason. The 6th pick in the draft will help, especially if someone like Clemson DE Gaines Adams or Ole Miss ILB Patrick Willis is available when the pick comes up. Will they be able to land secondary help in free agency (Nate Clements)? Will Rocky McIntosh be ready to step in at WLB?
• The NFL playoffs begin next weekend and it looks to be wide open, especially in the NFC. The only team I would be shocked to see as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl are the Giants. Saying that, and noting my terrible record with the MLB playoffs, here are my predictions for the NFC... Wild Card: Eagles over Giants, Cowboys over Seahawks. Divisional: Cowboys over Bears, Saints over Eagles. Championship: Saints over Cowboys. In the AFC, I could see any of the division winners making the Super Bowl, but can't imagine the Ravens or Chargers losing at home. My predictions for the AFC... Wild Card: Chiefs over Colts, Patriots over Jets. Divisional: Chargers over Chiefs, Ravens over Patriots. Championship: Chargers over Ravens.
• The Wizards have made a great run to get themselves on top of the division. Although Agent Zero gets most of the credit, the supporting cast should not be overlooked. Caron Butler has been fantastic with his all-around game, DeShawn Stevenson has proven to have some offensive skills to compliment his reputation as a defensive specialist, Brendan Haywood has stepped up his game with the injury to Etan Thomas, and Antawn Jamison is being Antawn Jamison. Two things to watch in the coming year: The Wizards seem to be one of the NBA teams who were comfortable with the synthetic ball. How will the change back to the leather ball affect them? Also, the team talked about a commitment to defense before the season began but seemed to abandon that during the winning streak. If the offense struggles, especially in the postseason, can the Wizards play enough defense to compensate?
• The Capitals have exceeded expectations so far this season, though the recent spate of injuries and illnesses have exposed the lack of depth to the lineup, especially on the blue line. Alexander Ovechkin is following up his Calder Trophy season with a sophomore campaign on pace for 100-plus points. The future looks bright on a team with only one skater over 30, and 10 regulars 25 or younger. Just as Hershey's run to the Calder Cup helped the development of the young players on the Caps farm team last season, battling for a playoff spot this season, whether successful or not, will be invaluable down the road when the team is ready to challenge for the Stanley Cup.
• The University of Maryland football team ended a good season with a 24-7 win over Purdue in the Champs Sports Bowl. Many of the wins in the Terps 9-4 season weren't pretty, but those victories and the extra month's worth of practices before the bowl should help the development of a team with only 12 seniors, including 7 that appeared on the two deep depth chart for the bowl game in Orlando.
• The University of Maryland basketball teams are both off to good starts this season. The defending national champion women's team has run its winning streak to 21 games with a 15-0 start to the season. A team that returned its entire starting lineup from last year has added two transfers and a talented freshman to the rotation. The ACC schedule begins soon and the top-ranked Lady Terrapins will be challenged by two other Top 3 teams in the National Rankings in Duke and UNC. The men's team is off to a 13-2 start with impressive wins on the road over Illinois, Michigan State, and St. John's. This year's team has emphasized improved defense, especially on the perimeter. So far, so good, as teams are shooting only 35% against them from the field, including only 28% from beyond the arc. Offensively, four players are averaging in double figures for a balanced offense, with Mike Jones finally emerging as the outside shooting threat (46.7% from three) he was touted to be as a McDonald's All-American.
• Major League Baseball has been proving again this winter that its owners have no idea how to handle financial success. This offseason they have handed out contracts totaling over 1.5 billion dollars. Such perennial all-stars as Gil Meche, Jeff Suppan, and Ted Lilly (all with career ERAs of 4.60 or more) will be making 10 million dollars per year over the next 4 years. Even a real all-star like Barry Zito, with an ERA hovering around 4.00 in the last 3 years, seems to be overpaid at 18 million per year.
• The Orioles have not been immune to overspending, but they have at least avoided handing out any of the crippling contracts like those mentioned above. After a season undone by relief pitching that ranked next to last in the majors with a 5.27 ERA, they moved quickly to sign 2 of the better free agent relievers on the market. Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford both finished last season with ERAs under 3.00 and WHIPs of 1.15 and 1.16 respectively. They also signed Danys Baez, who never had an ERA above 3.81 in four seasons as a reliever in the American League before he moved on to the Dodgers last year. Baez will provide insurance at closer should anything happen to Chris Ray. In need of starting pitching, the O's made an unsuccessful late run at Jason Schmidt, and will have to rely on a rotation that adds only Jaret Wright as a result of a trade with the Yankees. On offense, they filled holes in left field and first base with productive veterans in Jay Payton and Aubrey Huff... after being spurned by big name free agents Carlos Lee and Luis Gonzalez. The Nationals have been far less busy, but successfully reached their goal of shedding payroll with the trade of Jose Vidro to the Mariners. The plan is to get some of their young players more major league experience in 2007, and then fill holes where needed prior to the opening of the new ballpark in 2008. With the money saved by avoiding the temptation to enter this offseason's sellers' market, the Nationals, and to a lesser extent, the Orioles, are positioning themselves well to be major players in next winter's stellar free agent class.