National League "2nd Half" Preview

This was going to be a two-part blog over a couple nights, but I stayed up late to watch an Orioles rookie blank the Angels on one-hit over eight innings, so here is part two...

I know the all-star break serves as halftime for the MLB season, but the trade deadline tends to reshape the races so, at least in my mind, the 2nd half began last weekend. And now for the NL:

NL East – As tonight’s results trickle in, the Phillies, Marlins and Mets are now separated by just two games. And lookout! The Nats have won four straight and are now within 19 games of the division title, and 17 of the Mets. If Omar Minaya realized that, he’d jump in his car and drive over to Willie Randolph’s house to fire him again. Heck, it’s not even midnight yet, so why wait until morning? Sorry for that little aside… back to business. At the beginning of the year, I was certain the acquisition of Johan Santana would result in a bounce back year and division title for the Mets. Problem is the offense hasn’t been as dominant as expected and injuries have been a problem (9 players currently on the 15 day DL – not to mention the nagging injury to Billy Wagner). The Marlins have been a surprise considering the trade of Cabrera (and Willis) to the Tigers. Thing is, their 60-53 record is a bit of an anomaly. I found a nice little stat on mlb.com called expected win-loss (X W-L), which essentially determines what your record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed. The Marlins should be three games below .500, so I will yield to the math gods and say their luck will even out in the end. It’s a shame their attendance is still what it is, though they’ll never see improvement there until they start offering more “early bird” games that start around 3pm. That leaves the Phightins to win the division. The names in the rotation aren’t particularly impressive once you get past Cole Hamels, but they rank 4th in the NL in ERA on the strength of a dominant bullpen anchored by Brad Lidge. Wait, did I just write that? Let me check the spelling again… L-I-D-G-E. Who would have thunk it?! The offense still has the big boppers, including the last two league MVPs, so I’ll stick with Philly to win the pennant.

NL Central – What a difference 10 days make! I remember the pay-per-view ads. They called it The Brewhaha, The Spat in the Vat, The Bout for the Stout. Four games later, the Cubs had put a spout-whoopin’ on the Brewers and the division lead was back out to five games. Chicago is actually a little behind the pace their X W-L suggests, and that rotation looks like it will be tough to beat, not only down the stretch but in the postseason as well. And I’ve heard Piniella has Rich Harden in a bubble when he’s not on the mound just to make sure. The Brewers should rebound from that humiliating defeat to battle the Mets and D’backs for the wild card. The acquisition of Sabathia in my mind is the best midseason acquisition of the year… yes, even better than Manny. The rest of the rotation is solid, and like the Phillies, the offense has plenty of power. That may not help in the postseason, if they make it, but it should keep them in the race down the stretch. I know the Cardinals are right there with the Brewers, but I just can’t see them making the postseason. Yes, Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, but I think there are too many teams that improved themselves with trades last month for the Cardinals to stick around much longer.

NL West – A division that looked like it might have a winner with a below .500 record is starting to show signs of life. The Rockies dug themselves too big a hole for their post-all-star run to make a difference, but the D’backs and Dodgers are primed to battle it out for the division crown. The Dodgers clearly improved themselves the most of any team offensively by adding Ramirez at the deadline. I think he’ll end up being the difference as the D’backs kick themselves for not putting together a package to entice the Braves into shipping them Mark Teixeira. It’s hard to believe a team with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren atop the rotation, plus Randy Johnson as the #4, won’t win the division, but the offense just isn’t there. Do you think Arizona would take back the Carlos Quentin – Chris Carter trade if they could? The truth is out there and we all know what it is.

American League "2nd Half" Preview

Ah, “the national pastime.” I’ve heard stories from our forefathers recalling the days when that statement was true. Back before NFL minicamps bumped mid-season baseball games off the front page of the newspaper. But I digress…

I know the all-star break serves as halftime for the MLB season, but the trade deadline tends to reshape the races so, at least in my mind, the 2nd half began last weekend. Let’s start with the AL:

AL East – Entering play tonight, the Rays lead the Red Sox by 3 games and the Yankees by 5.5. The Red Sox are leading the wild card race by 1.5 games. I keep expecting the Rays to fade, but aside from the hiccup before the break, they haven’t shown any signs of letting up. I still see Boston coming back to take the division, though. I think the Manny trade ends up being a net win. The offensive production drop-off from Manny to Jason Bay is not too significant, and the ex-Pirate is a definite upgrade in the field and in the clubhouse, especially lately. I don’t get much news out of Pittsburgh, but I haven’t heard any tales of Jason being Jason. I see the Rays falling back because I think their youthful rotation will hit a wall in the next two months. Shields and Garza are only in their 2nd full big league seasons; Sonnanstine is in his first; and 2007 was Edwin Jackson’s first season as a full-time starter. It may not be a brick wall like Wrigley, but more along the lines of Rodney McCray’s painful 15 minutes of fame in 1991. I would have considered the Yankees the lead contender for the wild care until “the Hutt” left Monday’s game with an injury. If he is out for a lengthy period, I don’t think the pitching will be good enough to get them there. But perhaps that is wishful thinking on my part.

AL Central – The White Sox entered play Tuesday mere percentage points ahead of the Twins, but again, I think a youthful rotation will be the Twins downfall. The acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. made nice headlines, but I don’t think it will do much for Chicago’s offense unless they’ve borrowed a Way Back Machine from Mr. Peabody and are getting the Junior from 10 years ago. They’ll win the pennant on the strength of a pitching staff that ranks 6th in the AL and has an ERA nearly a half run lower than Minnesota. I would love to see the Twins take the wild card after the loss of Hunter and Santana in the offseason, but I think the Rays and Yankees are ahead of them in line.

AL West – I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County, California will win the division. The Rangers are miraculously five games over .500 and within five games of the Red Sox for the wild card, but I can’t believe a team with Luis Mendoza (3-4, 7.00 ERA) listed #2 on the starting pitcher depth chart is going to make the postseason. The guy who threw to Josh Hamilton at the Home Run Derby would probably make a better #2 starter.

Bracket Predictions

I've been working on this all day, waiting to see how the upset bids of Illinois and Georgia would work out...

• The bracket is based on a combination of records, rankings, ESPN's Daily RPI (including record versus RPI Top 100), and record over the last dozen games.
• The regions are seeded to split up teams from the same conferences, and to avoid conference rematches, as much as possible.
• I've tried to factor in sub-regional sites, but mainly in regards to travel for lower seeds.

EAST REGION (Charlotte):
1 UNC
2 Georgetown
3 Stanford
4 Drake
5 Marquette
6 Indiana
7 Arkansas
8 Oklahoma
9 St. Joseph’s
10 St. Mary’s
11 South Alabama
12 Oral Roberts
13 Siena
14 CS Fullerton
15 Belmont
16 Mount St. Mary’s

MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
1 Kansas
2 Tennessee
3 Xavier
4 Pittsburgh
5 Butler
6 USC
7 Purdue
8 West Virginia
9 Miami (FL)
10 Western Kentucky
11 Mississippi State
12 VCU
13 Cornell
14 Boise State
15 American
16 Mississippi Valley State vs. Coppin State (Play-In Game)

SOUTH REGION (Houston)
1 Memphis
2 Texas
3 Michigan State
4 Vanderbilt
5 UConn
6 Washington State
7 BYU
8 Notre Dame
9 Davidson
10 Illinois State
11 Virginia Tech
12 Kansas State
13 George Mason
14 St. Mary’s
15 Portland State
16 Winthrop

WEST REGION (Phoenix)
1 UCLA
2 Duke
3 Wisconsin
4 Louisville
5 Clemson
6 UNLV
7 Kent State
8 Gonzaga
9 Texas A&M
10 Villanova
11 Arizona
12 Temple
13 Georgia
14 Austin Peay
15 UMBC
16 UT Arlington

The Final Four In:
Kansas State
VCU
Mississippi State
Arizona

The Last Four Out:
Kentucky
Baylor
Creighton
UMass

Skins vs. Seahawks

For the 2nd time in 3 years, my two favorite NFL teams are meeting in the NFC playoffs. When I latched on to the Seahawks in the mid-80s as my AFC team, I could have never imagined this scenario. But I digress... Two years ago, I decided to pull for the Seahawks because I felt they had a much better chance to advance to the Super Bowl. This year, I have to root for the 'Skins as the sentimental favorite and the feel-good story. The inspiration the team found in Sean Taylor's death would be enough on its own, but when you add in the story of Todd Collins, I have to go with the 'Skins this week. Winning in Seattle, with the crowd noise and elements, will not be easy, but hopefully they can continue to ride this streak throughout the postseason.

The NFL B.R. (before replay)

I have been watching the Bills playoff comeback versus the Oilers in '93 for about 10 minutes now on NFL Network, and it strikes me that it would probably have never happened in 2008. Trailing 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, Frank Reich completed a pass to Don Beebe that Beebe fumbled before being touched down. The referee ruled him down and Buffalo retained possession. A few plays later, Reich threw a touchdown to Beebe after Beebe stepped out of bounds on the out and up. Both plays would have been overturned on replay. It was such a simpler time then... a simpler time with god-awful zebra sweatpants!