Orioles & MASN

Just finished watching most of the Orioles' starters play 6-7 innings against the Dodgers and boy are my eyes tired. They committed four errors in the first two innings, and could have been credited with two more if the official scorer hadn't been in his "happy place". Miggy had two, both on plays where he passively backed up on a ground ball and let it play him. When he finally made a play, the fans in Fort Lauderdale serenaded him with a Bronx cheer in appreciation of his efforts. Offensively, it seemed like deja vu all over again as they struggled to muster any threat against a left-handed starter, in this case Randy Wolf.

For the spring, the Orioles are 12-11 in the 18 team Grapefruit League. They rank above only Florida in runs scored with 92, or exactly 4 runs a game. In the 2006 regular season, Tampa Bay ranked last in the majors in that category, averaging 4.253 runs per game. Perhaps the Florida winds have played a part or maybe they have faced an inordinate number of lefties, but the offensive talent should be good enough to compete. In fact, the run scoring offense has ranked between 8th and 17th over the last 3 years, and the additions of Aubrey Huff & Jay Payton should only improve the lineup flexibility and potency. On the plus side, the team ranks 2nd in MLB in ERA this spring at 3.18. That's more than 2 runs less per game than they surrendered last year while ranking next to last in the majors. If the pitching carries over to the regular season, it would mark the first season this millennium when the team ranked above the bottom 10 in ERA.

A good product on the field would be made more enjoyable if MASN can improve its game production. The announcing teams are solid, but sometimes we have to take their word on the action. Today, Juan Pierre of the Dodgers stole 2nd base, but I only was aware of it from Jim Hunter's commentary and Ramon Hernandez's body language as the camera lingered a little long on the catcher's follow-through. There were a few other times when the camera people had trouble following the ball. In fact, I am still not sure the game is over. Rumor has it that the Orioles final batter lined out to Dodgers third baseman Andy LaRoche, but I can neither confirm nor deny that. I can only tell you that left fielder Matt Kemp really looked like he was about to dive for a ball that never came.

Local Round 2 Preview - Saturday

Locally, the Terps face Butler today and will need to neutralize guards A.J. Graves and Mike Green. D.J. Strawberry will draw the toughest assignment, but Maryland will need to spell him so that he can contribute better offensively than he did against Davidson. Butler leads the nation in protecting the ball with only 9.3 turnovers per game, so Maryland's pressure must create some easy baskets in transition. Lastly, the Maryland bigs must get some touches inside and if Butler packs the interior with a zone, the outside shots need to fall.

Georgetown faces Boston College and should be heavily favored to advance. Defensively, they need to contain the trio of Jared Dudley, Sean Marshall and Tyrese Rice. Those three players average 51.4 points per game while the rest of the roster averages only 24.2. Offensively, if they run their offense and get touches for Hibbert in the post early, they should their typical success, as Boston College gives up an average of 70 points per game and lost their interior defensive presence when Sean Williams was suspended mid-season.

Round 1 in Review

Two days of games and this year's tournament has been characterized by the lack of any huge upsets. There were a number of near misses, as North Texas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Miami (OH), Davidson and New Mexico State all nearly busted many a bracket. The only double digit seeds to win were VCU and Winthrop and many predicted those teams as the favorites when the brackets were unveiled. Controversial at-large teams Arkansas and Stanford did nothing to quiet the critics, getting blown out by 17 and 20 points respectively. I am sure that Drexel, Missouri State, and Syracuse are convinced they could have had better showings if their names had been called Sunday night.

Looking ahead to round 2, top seeds Florida and UNC look to have their hands full if Purdue and Michigan State continue to play the stifling defense they exhibited in their opening games. 3 seeds Texas A&M and Washington State will need to avoid the slow starts they had on Thursday if they hope to advance past Louisville and Vanderbilt, respectively. The only "cinderellas" left, VCU and Winthrop, face tough, but winnable matchups against Pittsburgh and Oregon, respectively.

Bracket Impressions - Omissions

• Four incorrect inclusions in my final bracket below - Syracuse, Missouri State, Drexel, Air Force.
• Four tourney teams according to the Selection Committee - Purdue, Texas Tech, Stanford, Arkansas

ESPN's Season RPI (which I assume is accurate): 30 Air Force, 35 Arkansas, 36 Missouri State, 39 Drexel, 42 Purdue, 50 Syracuse, 53 Texas Tech, 63 Stanford

ESPN's Non-Conference RPI (also assumed to be accurate): 14 Drexel, 16 Arkansas, 24 Air Force, 38 Missouri State, 39 Texas Tech, 40 Purdue, 45 Syracuse, 55 Stanford

So, the case I made for each of my excluded teams -

• Drexel - Good RPI for the season made even better by a non-conference strength of schedule ranked 8th. That non-conference schedule included wins at Vermont, St. Joseph's, Villanova, Syracuse, Temple, and Creighton.
• Air Force - 30th ranked RPI was enough to overlook 4 game losing streak to end the season. Non-conference wins included victories at George Washington by 14, at Stanford by 34, and at home over Texas Tech by 14. For some reason, I thought head-to-head victories meant something.
• Missouri State - After last year's griping with the ACC, I can never be confused with a big fan of the Missouri Valley Conference, but I did feel that the 6th rated conference deserved more than 2 teams, rather than a 4th from the 7th rated Big 12. Factor in the solid RPI and a win over Wisconsin, and I thought they should be in.
• Syracuse - The late 5 game regular season win streak that ended with a 14 point win over a Georgetown team in the midst of winning 15 of 16 games convinced me to give them the nod over the Razorbacks who had lost 9 of 15 games prior to the SEC tourney.

Projected Field of 65

Thanks to Windows Vista, I will be posting this 8 hours later than intended. The conference tournaments shook up the brackets a bit and 4 teams forced their way in by capturing their tourney crown. Again, when placing teams in regions, I tried to spread conference teams throughout the regions, with an eye on avoiding conference rematches until the regional finals if possible

• St. Louis - 1 Ohio State; 2 Memphis; 3 Pittsburgh; 4 Texas; 5 Oregon; 6 Creighton; 7 Duke; 8 Boston College; 9 Vanderbilt; 10 Syracuse; 11 Drexel; 12 Gonzaga; 13 George Washington; 14 Albany; 15 Texas A&M - Corpus Christi; 16 PLAY IN - Niagara vs. Central Connecticut State
• San Jose - 1 Kansas; 2 Wisconsin; 3 Tennessee; 4 Nevada; 5 Arizona; 6 Virginia Tech; 7 Villanova; 8 Michigan State; 9 Xavier; 10 Old Dominion; 11 Air Force; 12 Holy Cross; 13 Wright State; 14 Miami (OH); 15 Belmont; 16 Weber State
• East Rutherford - 1 UNC; 2 Georgetown; 3 UNLV; 4 Texas A&M; 5 Kentucky; 6 Washington State; 7 Virginia; 8 Notre Dame; 9 Illinois; 10 Missouri State; 11 VCU; 12 Winthrop; 13 Oral Roberts; 14 Long Beach State; 15 Eastern Kentucky; 16 Florida A&M
• San Antonio - 1 Florida; 2 UCLA; 3 Southern Illinois; 4 Maryland; 5 BYU; 6 Butler; 7 Louisville; 8 Marquette; 9 USC; 10 Indiana; 11 Georgia Tech; 12 Davidson; 13 New Mexico State; 14 Pennsylvania; 15 North Texas; 16 Jackson State

**As mentioned before, if there has to be a Play-In Game, it should really feature the last 2 at large teams into the field. In my projections, the game would have been an 11 seed matchup between Georgia Tech and Air Force.

My Last Four Out: Texas Tech, Utah State, Appalachian State, Arkansas

Time to go to CBS Sportsline and find out how far off I am on the predictions.

Field of Madness (1st Look)

With all the projected brackets floating around, I decided to enter the fray. The 1st look here is prior to the automatic bids being handed out at the conference tournaments. In 1 bid leagues, I projected the regular season champions as tourney representatives, breaking any ties using their RPI ranking on ESPN as of Friday the 2nd. I filled the rest of the bracket using season RPI rankings, conference RPI rankings, overall record and strength of non-conference schedule. When seeding the field, I also looked at head to head matchups when applicable. For example, at first glance, I considered my beloved Terps for a 3 or a 4 seed, based mainly on their current winning streak. I considered the probable ACC champ Virginia Cavaliers as a 4 or a 5 seed, due to some weak losses in conference and in Puerto Rico. Acknowledging the Cavs' season sweep of UM, I felt I couldn't seed the Terps higher, so both are in as 4s. When placing teams in regions, I tried to spread conference teams throughout the regions, with an eye on avoiding conference rematches until the regional finals if possible. So, without further ado...

• San Antonio - 1 Florida; 2 UNC; 3 Nevada; 4 BYU; 5 Va Tech; 6 Oregon; 7 Louisville; 8 Michigan State; 9 Marquette; 10 Illinois; 11 Texas Tech; 12 Winthrop; 13 Holy Cross; 14 Long Beach State; 15 Austin Peay; 16 South Alabama
• East Rutherford - 1 Wisconsin; 2 Pittsburgh; 3 Texas A&M; 4 Kentucky; 5 Texas; 6 Butler; 7 Boston College; 8 Arizona; 9 Air Force; 10 Missouri State; 11 Drexel; 12 Utah State; 13 Gonzaga; 14 Sam Houston State; 15 East Tennessee State; 16 Delaware State
• Saint Louis - 1 Ohio State; 2 Memphis; 3 Georgetown; 4 Maryland; 5 UNLV; 6 Vanderbilt; 7 Washington State; 8 Creighton; 9 Notre Dame; 10 Syracuse; 11 Georgia Tech; 12 USC; 13 Akron; 14 Pennsylvania; 15 Oral Roberts; 16 PLAY IN (Weber State v Miss Valley State)
• San Jose - 1 UCLA; 2 Kansas; 3 So. Illinois; 4 Virginia; 5 Tennessee; 6 Duke; 7 Villanova; 8 Xavier; 9 Indiana; 10 Old Dominion; 11 Alabama; 12 Appalachian State; 13 Davidson; 14 Vermont; 15 Marist; 16 Central Conn State

**One soapbox issue I have is that if there has to be a Play-In Game, it should really feature the last 2 at large teams into the field. In my projections, the game would have been a 12 seed matchup between USC and Appalachian State.

Last Four Out: Purdue, Bradley, San Diego State, West Virginia

Back in a week with the pre-Selection Sunday version...