This was going to be a two-part blog over a couple nights, but I stayed up late to watch an Orioles rookie blank the Angels on one-hit over eight innings, so here is part two...I know the all-star break serves as halftime for the MLB season, but the trade deadline tends to reshape the races so, at least in my mind, the 2nd half began last weekend. And now for the NL:
NL East – As tonight’s results trickle in, the Phillies, Marlins and Mets are now separated by just two games. And lookout! The Nats have won four straight and are now within 19 games of the division title, and 17 of the Mets. If Omar Minaya realized that, he’d jump in his car and drive over to Willie Randolph’s house to fire him again. Heck, it’s not even midnight yet, so why wait until morning? Sorry for that little aside… back to business. At the beginning of the year, I was certain the acquisition of Johan Santana would result in a bounce back year and division title for the Mets. Problem is the offense hasn’t been as dominant as expected and injuries have been a problem (9 players currently on the 15 day DL – not to mention the nagging injury to Billy Wagner). The Marlins have been a surprise considering the trade of Cabrera (and Willis) to the Tigers. Thing is, their 60-53 record is a bit of an anomaly. I found a nice little stat on mlb.com called expected win-loss (X W-L), which essentially determines what your record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed. The Marlins should be three games below .500, so I will yield to the math gods and say their luck will even out in the end. It’s a shame their attendance is still what it is, though they’ll never see improvement there until they start offering more “early bird” games that start around 3pm. That leaves the Phightins to win the division. The names in the rotation aren’t particularly impressive once you get past Cole Hamels, but they rank 4th in the NL in ERA on the strength of a dominant bullpen anchored by Brad Lidge. Wait, did I just write that? Let me check the spelling again… L-I-D-G-E. Who would have thunk it?! The offense still has the big boppers, including the last two league MVPs, so I’ll stick with Philly to win the pennant.
NL Central – What a difference 10 days make! I remember the pay-per-view ads. They called it The Brewhaha, The Spat in the Vat, The Bout for the Stout. Four games later, the Cubs had put a spout-whoopin’ on the Brewers and the division lead was back out to five games. Chicago is actually a little behind the pace their X W-L suggests, and that rotation looks like it will be tough to beat, not only down the stretch but in the postseason as well. And I’ve heard Piniella has Rich Harden in a bubble when he’s not on the mound just to make sure. The Brewers should rebound from that humiliating defeat to battle the Mets and D’backs for the wild card. The acquisition of Sabathia in my mind is the best midseason acquisition of the year… yes, even better than Manny. The rest of the rotation is solid, and like the Phillies, the offense has plenty of power. That may not help in the postseason, if they make it, but it should keep them in the race down the stretch. I know the Cardinals are right there with the Brewers, but I just can’t see them making the postseason. Yes, Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, but I think there are too many teams that improved themselves with trades last month for the Cardinals to stick around much longer.
NL West – A division that looked like it might have a winner with a below .500 record is starting to show signs of life. The Rockies dug themselves too big a hole for their post-all-star run to make a difference, but the D’backs and Dodgers are primed to battle it out for the division crown. The Dodgers clearly improved themselves the most of any team offensively by adding Ramirez at the deadline. I think he’ll end up being the difference as the D’backs kick themselves for not putting together a package to entice the Braves into shipping them Mark Teixeira. It’s hard to believe a team with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren atop the rotation, plus Randy Johnson as the #4, won’t win the division, but the offense just isn’t there. Do you think Arizona would take back the Carlos Quentin – Chris Carter trade if they could? The truth is out there and we all know what it is.
No comments:
Post a Comment