Ah, “the national pastime.” I’ve heard stories from our forefathers recalling the days when that statement was true. Back before NFL minicamps bumped mid-season baseball games off the front page of the newspaper. But I digress…I know the all-star break serves as halftime for the MLB season, but the trade deadline tends to reshape the races so, at least in my mind, the 2nd half began last weekend. Let’s start with the AL:
AL East – Entering play tonight, the Rays lead the Red Sox by 3 games and the Yankees by 5.5. The Red Sox are leading the wild card race by 1.5 games. I keep expecting the Rays to fade, but aside from the hiccup before the break, they haven’t shown any signs of letting up. I still see Boston coming back to take the division, though. I think the Manny trade ends up being a net win. The offensive production drop-off from Manny to Jason Bay is not too significant, and the ex-Pirate is a definite upgrade in the field and in the clubhouse, especially lately. I don’t get much news out of Pittsburgh, but I haven’t heard any tales of Jason being Jason. I see the Rays falling back because I think their youthful rotation will hit a wall in the next two months. Shields and Garza are only in their 2nd full big league seasons; Sonnanstine is in his first; and 2007 was Edwin Jackson’s first season as a full-time starter. It may not be a brick wall like Wrigley, but more along the lines of Rodney McCray’s painful 15 minutes of fame in 1991. I would have considered the Yankees the lead contender for the wild care until “the Hutt” left Monday’s game with an injury. If he is out for a lengthy period, I don’t think the pitching will be good enough to get them there. But perhaps that is wishful thinking on my part.
AL Central – The White Sox entered play Tuesday mere percentage points ahead of the Twins, but again, I think a youthful rotation will be the Twins downfall. The acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. made nice headlines, but I don’t think it will do much for Chicago’s offense unless they’ve borrowed a Way Back Machine from Mr. Peabody and are getting the Junior from 10 years ago. They’ll win the pennant on the strength of a pitching staff that ranks 6th in the AL and has an ERA nearly a half run lower than Minnesota. I would love to see the Twins take the wild card after the loss of Hunter and Santana in the offseason, but I think the Rays and Yankees are ahead of them in line.
AL West – I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County, California will win the division. The Rangers are miraculously five games over .500 and within five games of the Red Sox for the wild card, but I can’t believe a team with Luis Mendoza (3-4, 7.00 ERA) listed #2 on the starting pitcher depth chart is going to make the postseason. The guy who threw to Josh Hamilton at the Home Run Derby would probably make a better #2 starter.
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